AL022025 1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST DISCUSSION 1 THE HURRICANE NETWORK NEW YORK NY 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025 A USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the low located over the Bay of Campeche for the last several hours. While the system is battling some serious upper-level winds and land interaction. The system has gained a well-defined center with a pocket of sustained winds of 25 kt. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Two. As mentioned, the depression is not in a really good location for organization due to strong vertical shear and some land interaction. Howerver, there is a chance that the system could intensify further into a minimal tropical storm before making landfall along the Mexician Gulf coast on Sunday. The official Hurricane Network intensify forecast is in the range of the GFS and ICON 18z models with the depression strengthening into a tropical storm within 36 hr prior to landfall. Thereafter, the system will rapidly decay over inland Mexico. The depression is currently moving west-northwest at 7 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so before turning towards the north-northwest to northwest with a higher rate of forward motion. The government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the Gulf coast of Mexico due to the forecast of expected tropical storm conditions within the next 24 hrs. Key Messages: 1. The expected rainfall of near 8 inches will likely create limited flash and urban flooding for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and some immediate inland areas. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla. Tropical storm conditions should be expected within the next 24 hours. Forecaster Ryan